Market Overview
- The NZD/USD pair edged higher, supported by upbeat New Zealand Retail Sales data for Q1. However, a stronger US PMI could limit the pair's upside.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed concerns about the impact of President Trump's trade war on international trade, causing the EUR/USD to trade slightly higher.
- Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% YoY in April, leading to a decrease in the USD/JPY pair.
- The USD/CAD pair trades near 1.3855, with the US Dollar gaining against the Canadian Dollar due to stronger-than-expected PMI data.
- GBP/USD remained near 1.3400 on Thursday, with investors concerned about US debt issues and expected decline in UK Retail Sales.
Fundamental Analysis
- New Zealand's Retail Sales increased by 0.8% in Q1 of 2025, surpassing market expectations and leading to a slight increase in the NZD/USD currency pair.
- The Euro weakened against the US Dollar due to better-than-expected US economic data and weaker EU PMIs.
- Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne discussed their G7 experiences, focusing on US tariffs and potential impact on global economic growth.
- Solid March retail sales and Q1 GDP data in Mexico have eased recession fears, supporting the Mexican Peso (MXN) against the US Dollar (USD).
Technical Analysis
- EUR/USD: The pair is trading around 1.1300 with weak Eurozone PMI data and strong US business activity causing a decline.
- GBP/USD: The pair consolidates near 1.3410 with key technical resistance level at 1.3440 remaining unbroken.
- USD/CAD: The pair struggles to find direction due to mixed fundamental cues with resistance at 1.3900 and support at 1.3815-1.3810.
- Gold (XAU/USD): Gold prices dropped by 0.48% after reaching a two-week high due to a strong US Dollar and firmer US S&P PMIs.
Conclusion
- The market remains volatile with mixed economic data from different regions affecting currency pairs.
- The NZD/USD pair is expected to be influenced by the upcoming Federal Reserve officials' speeches.
- The Eurozone's weak PMI data and the US's strong business activity are causing a decline in the EUR/USD pair.
- Gold prices are expected to be influenced by geopolitical risks and the US Dollar Index's performance.
